What Is Polymarket ETH Data?
Polymarket's Ethereum Up/Down markets let traders bet on whether ETH will close higher or lower at the end of a prediction round. The implied probability — the Up price — reflects the aggregate view of all active participants in real time.
This dataset records those probabilities every 5 minutes, creating a dense time series of ETH crowd sentiment. Coverage starts 2026-04-07 and grows daily as new rounds complete.
Data Format
- timestamp — Unix timestamp (seconds)
- up_price — implied probability ETH goes up (0–1)
- down_price — implied probability ETH goes down (0–1)
- remaining_minutes — time left in the prediction round
Sample Data
| Timestamp | DateTime (UTC) | Up | Down | Rem. Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1744012500 | 2026-04-07 09:15 | 0.493 | 0.507 | 304 |
| 1744012800 | 2026-04-07 09:20 | 0.501 | 0.499 | 299 |
| 1744013100 | 2026-04-07 09:25 | 0.487 | 0.513 | 294 |
| 1744013400 | 2026-04-07 09:30 | 0.512 | 0.488 | 289 |
| 1744013700 | 2026-04-07 09:35 | 0.498 | 0.502 | 284 |
ETH vs BTC: What Makes ETH Data Different?
- Higher volatility: ETH prediction markets often show sharper intraday swings in Up/Down probability compared to BTC.
- DeFi correlation: ETH sentiment on Polymarket sometimes diverges from price when major DeFi events occur — useful for cross-market analysis.
- Shorter history: ETH data starts April 2026 vs BTC from February 2026 — allows controlled comparison of the two assets.
- Combined datasets: Pair ETH and BTC data to study crypto correlation in prediction markets.
Use Cases
Ethereum Sentiment Analysis
Analyze how ETH market sentiment evolves around network upgrades, DeFi events, or macro news. Compare prediction market signals to realized ETH price action.
Multi-Asset Strategy Research
Combine ETH and BTC data to explore cross-asset prediction patterns. Study whether BTC Up probability leads or lags ETH Up probability.
Academic Research
Use as a clean, time-stamped dataset for studying decentralized prediction market microstructure, crowd wisdom, or information aggregation in crypto.