What Is Polymarket BTC Data?
Polymarket runs short-term Bitcoin Up/Down prediction markets: traders bet on whether BTC will be higher or lower at the end of a round. Each round lasts several hours, and the implied probability shifts continuously as traders enter and exit positions.
This dataset captures those probabilities as a time series — one snapshot every 5 minutes — giving you a high-frequency view of how the crowd's Bitcoin sentiment evolved over time. Data begins 2026-02-13 and updates continuously.
Data Format
- timestamp — Unix timestamp (seconds)
- up_price — implied probability BTC goes up (0–1)
- down_price — implied probability BTC goes down (0–1)
- remaining_minutes — time left in the prediction round
Sample Data
| Timestamp | DateTime (UTC) | Up | Down | Rem. Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1739404500 | 2026-02-13 06:15 | 0.521 | 0.479 | 287 |
| 1739404800 | 2026-02-13 06:20 | 0.534 | 0.466 | 282 |
| 1739405100 | 2026-02-13 06:25 | 0.528 | 0.472 | 277 |
| 1739405400 | 2026-02-13 06:30 | 0.519 | 0.481 | 272 |
| 1739405700 | 2026-02-13 06:35 | 0.541 | 0.459 | 267 |
Use Cases for BTC Prediction Market Data
Bitcoin Sentiment Research
Track how market sentiment around BTC evolves intraday. Compare crowd probability against actual BTC price movements to identify mispricings.
Backtesting Trading Strategies
Use Up/Down prices as signals for crypto trading strategies. Build and validate mean-reversion or momentum models against real prediction market data.
ML Training Data
Train time-series models (LSTM, Transformer) on BTC sentiment sequences. Predict future round outcomes from historical implied probability patterns.